By Hannah Beech

Among the many hands that Barack Obama will likely shake on his inaugural trip to Asia as U.S. President will be that of a soft-spoken general who happens to represent one of the world’s most repressive regimes. Obama’s planned joint appearance on Nov. 15 with Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein, at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ confab on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Singapore, will mark the first time since the era of Lyndon B. Johnson that an American President has spent any face-time with a member of the Burmese junta that has ruled since 1962.

The brief meet-and-greet will underscore a major shift in American foreign policy toward the Southeast Asian nation, renamed Myanmar by its ruling generals. For decades the U.S. has shunned contact with the Burmese military regime and in recent years has tightened financial sanctions on its leaders for their murderous treatment of their citizens. (In the most recent crackdown in 2007, security forces gunned down dozens of Buddhist monks and other peaceful protesters.)

But after a strategic review conducted over several months, the U.S. State Department announced in September that it would pursue a policy of cautious engagement with Burma, in part because isolation had not worked in blunting the regime’s brutal behavior. Administration officials cautioned that sanctions would remain in place for the time being and would only be lifted if the Burmese government showed tangible human-rights progress. But dialogue with dictators, goes the new U.S. thinking that is being applied from Iran to North Korea, is now seen as preferable to not talking and cutting off any chance at reconciliation. (See pictures of Burma’s opposition movement.)

The change in policy also reflects the political and economic reality in Asia. While the U.S. and European Union have stayed away, other countries have poured money into Burma — most notably its neighbors China, Thailand and India, who are hungry for the country’s plentiful natural resources. The sting of western sanctions has been lessened by such investment forays, leaving the Burmese military brass with plenty of money to prop up their regime. (See pictures of what lies behind the discontent in Burma.)

As part of the policy shift, Kurt Campbell, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, visited Burma earlier this month — the first such high-level tour in nearly 15 years. In a significant concession, Campbell was allowed to meet for two hours with the opposition leader and Nobel Peace prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Her party won by a landslide in 1990 elections that the junta then ignored; and her continued detention has angered the West. But not everyone was available to meet Campbell: junta supremo General Than Shwe stayed holed up in his army bunker, snubbing the visiting American. (Although he holds the title of Prime Minister, Thein Sein, who the U.S. President will meet, is merely fourth in Burma’s military hierarchy.)

Besides a possible winding down of sanctions, what does Burma get out of a rapprochement with the United States? Despite its reputation as a self-isolating regime, Burma’s army just may be looking for a little international affirmation. Next year, the generals will orchestrate a national election — the first since the 1990 polls that they ignored because their party lost so badly. This time around, the military has done its best to ensure its ruling clique will stay in power. The new constitution reserves top government positions for members of the military, and an esoteric set of rules seems specifically designed to keep Suu Kyi from participating in the electoral process. International monitor groups also have little doubt that vote-rigging will reach Afghan proportions. Nonetheless, the State Peace and Development Council, as the regime has designated itself, appears interesting in having the outside world approve of the elections — if only to confer legitimacy on its continuing rule.

If Obama does exchange more than photo-op pleasantries with Thein Sein in Singapore, it would be natural for the American to ask the Burmese Prime Minister about Suu Kyi’s fate. In a tantalizing announcement earlier this month, Min Lwin, a director-general of Burma’s Foreign Ministry claimed to the Associated Press that “there is a plan to release [Aung San Suu Kyi] soon

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Monday, November 9, 2009

(11-09) 05:53 PST SINGAPORE, (AP) –

Myanmar’s military-ruled government may release pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi soon, so she can play a role in next year’s general elections, according to a senior Myanmar diplomat.

The remarks by Min Lwin — rare for a Myanmar government official on an overseas visit — were in line with vague comments in recent years by the junta that it intends to free Suu Kyi soon. But officials have given no time frame and have made no real moves to release her.

Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been detained for 14 of the past 20 years and not been able to speak publicly since she was last taken into detention in May 2003.

A court recently sentenced the 64-year-old to an additional 18 months of house arrest, which would prevent her from participating in the elections — the first in two decades — unless she is granted a special release.

“There is a plan to release her soon … so she can organize her party,” Min Lwin, a director-general in the Foreign Ministry, told The Associated Press in Manila. He refused to elaborate, and it was not clear if he meant that Suu Kyi would be allowed to campaign.

There is no indication that the government would allow Suu Kyi to run in the election. Myanmar’s constitution includes provisions that bar Suu Kyi from holding office and ensure the military a controlling stake in government.

Min Lwin said the proposal to free Suu Kyi was not influenced by the recent change in U.S. policy under President Barack Obama, who is seeking to engage Myanmar, also known as Burma. The Bush administration had shunned any direct talks with the reclusive Southeast Asian nation.

Although Myanmar welcomes the new policy, Min Lwin said he did not expect any major changes in the near future, mainly because U.S. sanctions are still in force.

Min Lwin was in Manila to attend a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the United States.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Ambassador for ASEAN Affairs Scot Marciel held separate talks last week with Myanmar’s ruling generals and Suu Kyi — the highest-ranking visit by American officials to Myanmar in 14 years.

Suu Kyi is satisfied with her meeting with U.S. officials and believes they “have good intentions toward Myanmar and are making efforts to work for democratic reform for the country,” her lawyer Nyan Win said Monday.

Obama will meet ASEAN leaders on Nov. 15, on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Singapore, bringing him in rare contact with Myanmar’s prime minister, Gen. Thein Sein.

Officials have not said if Obama will meet privately with Thein Sein. The last U.S. president to meet a Myanmar leader was Lyndon B. Johnson, who held talks with then-Prime Minister Ne Win in 1966.

Despite their new approach to Myanmar, U.S. officials have said that tough sanctions against the junta will remain in place until talks with its generals result in democratic reforms.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/11/09/international/i055337S47.DTL

Lee, who will host the US-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on November 15, described the inaugural meeting as a “significant step forward” in relations between Washington and ASEAN.

The event marks the first time a US leader will be in one room with counterparts from all 10 ASEAN states. It will follow a meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group, also in the city-state.

Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein is expected to attend, Lee said.

Washington’s ties with ASEAN had been hobbled by its position on Myanmar, whose military regime has been accused of human rights violations, including the continued detention of Suu Kyi and other dissidents.

But in a recent policy shift, the Obama administration decided to re-engage with Myanmar, while maintaining a critical view on certain issues.

Regarding “Aung San Suu Kyi, I think ASEAN’s view is clear and we’ve always said that we believe she ought to be released,” Lee said at a news conference ahead of the APEC meeting.

“I’m sure this will be discussed in the US-ASEAN summit too and I’m sure both sides will state their views.”

Lee described the ASEAN-US summit as “a good sign because the US… is now moving to engage Myanmar and I think Myanmar is engaging.”

He spoke as two senior US envoys arrived in Myanmar for talks with the ruling junta and Suu Kyi, the highest level visit to the country in 14 years.

“This is all to the good because our view has always been that ostracising Myanmar and cutting it off altogether is not the constructive way forward. It is unlikely to yield any results,” Lee said.

Nobel peace laureate Suu Kyi had her house arrest extended in August for 18 months after she was convicted over an incident in which an American man swam to her home. This effectively sidelines her from elections planned for next year, analysts say.

Apart from Myanmar and Singapore, ASEAN also includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

as of 11/03/2009 9:12 PM

YANGON (Reuters) – A delegation of senior U.S. officials, pursuing a new dialogue, met with Myanmar’s military rulers on Tuesday in the highest-level talks with the reclusive junta in 14 years.

The move by President Barack Obama’s administration to engage the junta appeared focused on pushing for free and fair elections next year, although analysts said the rapprochement was as much about geopolitics and the growing regional influence of China.

Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell led the U.S. delegation meeting the junta in its new capital, Naypyidaw, before traveling to Yangon for talks with detained Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy party.

State Department spokesman Ian Kelly characterized the trip as “basically … a fact-finding mission” aimed at advancing the newly agreed dialogue between the two countries.

“Today, they met with ministers of the Burmese government and with various individuals affiliated with the regime,” he said. “Tomorrow they plan to meet with some representatives from the opposition, with the prime minister and also with Aung San Suu Kyi.”

“They’re basically in kind of an information gathering mode. They laid out the way we see this relationship going forward, how we should structure this dialogue. But they were mainly in a listening mode today,” Kelly said.

The United States said little before the two-day visit, seen as exploratory dialogue to gauge how sincere Myanmar’s distrustful generals are about democratic reforms.

“The U.S. wants to suss out whether or not they have a genuine dialogue partner,” said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar analyst at Australia’s Macquarie University.

“The overtures toward warming ties with the U.S. have come from officials lower down and the U.S. is trying to get a feel for how committed the generals are.”

DEEPER ENGAGEMENT

Campbell met Myanmar’s minister of science, technology and labor in New York in September after Washington announced it would pursue deeper engagement to try to spur reform.

Campbell has rejected calls by critics to ease restrictions on trade and investment in the former Burma, insisting dialogue would “supplement rather than replace the sanctions regime.”

A government source in Naypyidaw said Campbell, the most senior U.S. official to visit Myanmar since former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in 1995, was expected to meet with ministers and senior junta figures, including Prime Minister Thein Sein.

“But he’s not likely to meet the senior general,” said the source, referring to Than Shwe, who heads the junta and has led the country for the last 17 years.

Critics of Myanmar’s rulers say they could be using the U.S. visit to try to give legitimacy to the junta’s own democratic “road map” and show China, it’s main ally and economic lifeline, that it is not its only friend.

Than Shwe’s snub is being seen as an indicator of the generals’ commitment toward reforms and a sign of whether the U.S. engagement can really be effective.

“Avoiding Campbell means the senior general is not ready to compromise. I think he will fall short of the expectations of the new U.S. administration,” said a retired civil servant in Yangon.

Thakhin Chan Tun, a retired diplomat, added: “We can’t expect any tangible immediate results … Than Shwe is the one who makes all the decisions on all important policy issues.”

Some analysts say that Myanmar’s ties with China have been strained over instability along their common border and the generals are keen to reduce their reliance on Beijing while seeking to shore up ties with India, Russia and their Southeast Asian allies.

“Burma’s ties with China may have been exaggerated and it might want to show that it can function independently,” said Christopher Roberts at the University of Canberra.

Campbell is due to meet on Wednesday with Suu Kyi, who has spent 14 of the last 20 years in some form of detention. The junta last month allowed her to meet Western diplomats to discuss sanctions on the country.

(Writing and additional reporting by Martin Petty and David Alexander; Editing by Ron Popeski and Chris Wilson)

Next year’s elections push ruling generals to contain dissidents and quell insurgencies – without annoying China.

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RANGOON, Burma —

Detained Burma opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is unhappy about restrictions on the visitors she is allowed under house arrest, including members of her legal team and an architect needed to help repair her dilapidated lakeside home.

Nyan Win, one of her lawyers, said after meeting with her Thursday that she complained that the ruling military junta is infringing upon her rights.

Her complaint comes as the regime prepares for elections next year and seeks more recognition from the international community. The United States had isolated the junta with political and economic sanctions, but the Obama administration decided recently to step up engagement as a way of promoting reforms.

Suu Kyi “has asked us to send a letter to the authorities to allow all four lawyers to meet her at once and to meet the architect,” said Nyan Win, who along with fellow lawyer Kyi Win met with her to discuss an appeal of her most recent sentence of house arrest.

“She said this is her personal right and authorities had no right to limit them,” he said.

Suu Kyi said she would prefer to listen to the views of more lawyers and that she needs an architect to help repair the two-story house where she is confined, Nyan Win said.

The terms of Suu Kyi’s current detention are less strict than her previous term of house arrest, when the only outsiders she was allowed to see were her doctor and, occasionally, visiting U.N. envoys.

Under an eight-point set of rules, Suu Kyi can now receive visitors with prior permission from the junta, has the right to medical treatment by doctors and nurses, and is allowed to see state-controlled newspapers and magazines and state-run television. She recently met with several foreign ambassadors stationed in Burma.

Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has spent 14 of the last 20 years in detention. In August, she was sentenced to an additional 18 months of house arrest for allowing an uninvited American to stay briefly at her home earlier this year.

The sentence, which ensured that she would not be able to participate in next year’s elections, drew international condemnation.

Suu Kyi’s legal team plans to appeal the sentence to the Supreme Court.